Fantasy Corner: Hot topics heading into the 2013 season

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June is here and in my mind summer has officially started!!! There are a lot of things I associate with summer time but to name a few some of those are going golfing (if you call what I do golfing), drinking Summer Shandy’s (yep, they’re good) and having fantasy football banter/ drafts with your buddies. Now all three can and usually do go hand and hand together and when they are all combined it causes the debates to be much more entertaining. The beautiful thing about fantasy football is everyone has their own opinions and reasoning on why they do or don’t like a certain player.  In this write up I’m going to tackle some of the toughest questions fantasy football owners are facing coming into this season. Disagree with me? That’s fine, leave a comment. I’m always up for a good fantasy debate.

 

When should I draft Rob Gronkowski?

No doubt about it Gronk has been the “hot topic” this off season. At first we were all worried about a forearm infection and now that that’s behind him a back surgery is looming in his future. If he had a clear bill of health coming into this season Gronk would be a lock as an early 2nd round pick in your drafts. Now that his availability for week 1 is in question many owners are scratching their heads wondering when they should pull the trigger on him.

My thinking on this is if you can get Gronk at the end of the 4th I think he offers great value there. Gronk missed 5 games last season and still ended as a top 5 scoring TE in most scoring formats.  Usually I wouldn’t roll the dice on a player like this but let’s be serious, Gronk’s a freak who has scored 28 touchdowns in his first 43 games and he’s got one the best in the biz slinging it to him.  So let’s say he misses the first 3 games of the season. I’d back up Gronk with a Greg Olsen type of tight end (who’s being WAY undervalued currently) towards the end of the draft who has top 8 upside, and at the end of the season you will still find yourself with top tier production from your tight end position.

At the end of the day I’ll take 10 weeks of elite fantasy production over a guy who I value as a wr2 or flex play.

 

David Wilson or Lamar Miller?

Wilson and Miller come into the season as the trendy breakout candidates for the running back position, and the buzz is rightfully so. Both second year running backs are being handed the keys to their offenses and both find themselves with a pretty similar ADP.

Wilson gives the Giants an explosive running back that is capable of taking it the distance every time he touches the ball. What makes Wilson even more intriguing is the fact that the Giants offense is littered with play makers and opposing defenses will have to play them honest. Wilson only got 71 carries his rookie year and the bulk of those came over the final 4 weeks of the season (43) when Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown were banged up. For running backs that don’t have a large body of work to take into account I like looking at the games where they got a steady workload to build up some rhythm, last season he received 10 + carries in 3 games and in those games averaged 5.7 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns. Although this doesn’t equate to success it does show us that when given the opportunity he has been able to succeed.

When Reggie Bush left South Beach for Detroit the fantasy community immediately labeled Lamar Miller as a player to watch. The Dolphins spent big money this off season upgrading their receiving core for their second year QB Ryan Tannehill and showed they have enough faith in Miller by not bringing in any other veteran RB’s via free agency. Millers’ story is pretty similar to Wilson’s, he didn’t get a lot of carries his rookie year but again had 2 games last season with 10 carries and averaged 6.9 ypc in those games and scored 1 TD. Now granted this came against two of the worst run defenses in football in Oakland and Buffalo but it still shows promise.

Both players come into this year with a tremendous amount of upside and both have the capabilities to turn into top 10 running backs. I look for both to be utilized more in the passing game this season as they are very dangerous with the ball in their hands in the open field. I will say though that even though Wilson is in a better offense, I like Millers situation more. With only Daniel Thomas and rookie Mike Gillislee behind him he shouldn’t have any problem with people eating into too many of his carries especially around the goal line. In the end I like both going into this year but I WOULD draft Lamar Miller ahead of David Wilson.

 

When should I draft a QB?

This one always makes for an interesting debate year in and out and there’s really no right or wrong answer to this as people have had success drafting quarterbacks throughout the draft, but my personal preference in most scoring formats has always been to wait on a QB in the draft and play the match ups each week throughout the season. However sometimes frustrating, this strategy has often given me the advantage of loading up on running backs and wide receivers early on in the draft and it allows me to take risks on players I like more freely in the mid-to –late rounds.

This year in particular there is so much talent at the QB position as a whole that you can afford to wait. Currently Aaron Rodgers is the first QB being taken and is being drafted towards the end of the 2nd round and Tony Romo is the 12th QB taken and you can get him in the 7th or 8th rounds. Now Rodgers outscored Romo by a decent margin last season but if you look at it on a weekly basis over the 13 week fantasy season Rodgers only bettered Romo on a weekly basis during 7 of those weeks. What I’m saying is if you wait on Romo you are still getting elite QB production at a cheaper price.

As I said previously I would rather spend my early picks loading up on RB’s/WR’s and if I can get a value pick like Romo who has potential to be a top 6 fantasy QB that late in the draft, sign me up.

 

ADP data was collected from MyfantasyLeague.com

  • http://fflockerroom.com/ Fantasy Football Junkie

    Nice job Jason, love the talk about Wilson and Miller. Personally I can’t let Miller go before Wilson solely based on the amount of work each has gotten to this point. In my opinion, you gotta trust Wilson just a bit more, but just barely…

  • Jason Davis

    Thanks, I think it’s going to be close and although most will be on the Wilson Bandwagon I’m happy being the lead conductor on the Miller train
    Cho Choo