Ok, I know what you’re thinking. Where has this article been all season? In fact, where has this article been the past two seasons? Honestly, I don’t know. Before becoming a part of the FFLockerRoom team and later being promoted to a Co-Owner, I was writing my personal fantasy football blog. Writing when I wanted with a couple of weekly articles that may or may not have come out on time, just trying to get noticed. One day, it worked. I got noticed and dropped the blog like a bad habit. And one of the things I stopped writing, due to many other new responsibilities, was my Hits and Misses article. It was my favorite post of the week in which I tried to best the experts over at ESPN.
The gist of the article is simple. I would look at their rankings and pick out sleepers. I would suggest players that were ranked outside of the normal starting parameters (ex: outside the top 10 at QB) and if they snuck into the top ten by weeks end, it counts as a ‘Hit’. And if he failed to crack the top ten, it would be a ‘Miss’. So easy yet so difficult.
The article is intended to help those of us in deep leagues looking for players to vastly out play their rankings. I did this for a few seasons and my internal goal was finish with at least a .500 record. Generally I would finish close and as you can see from where I left off in 2012, I was 4-4 after two weeks.
Since we are now a part of the FantasyPros ranking network, I will now use the Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) that they generate as my base. And really this should be extremely hard to predict as they take rankings from over 120 sites and put them together.
You will not have to worry about this intro going forward. I will recap how I did the previous week and move on to that weeks players. If you want a snazzy intro, go read my Good, Bad and Ugly article!
RULES: I can pick as many players as I want but need to choose at least one from each of the four offensive positions. Those players have to be outside of the top 10 for QBs and TEs, top 25 for RBs and top 30 for WRs at the time of the article. I will release the article on Thursday and use the ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) on FantasyPros that are current at the time of writing. Rankings can change dramatically from Thursday to Sunday, please remember that.
Fantasy Football Junkie’s Hits and Misses – Week 14
1. QB – Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (ECR – 15th): I know that Flacco has been brutal this year but the truth is, when all is said and done, Joe will have had a very normal ‘Joe like’ season. He’s on pace to equal right around his average in terms of yards, TDs and INTs. The only thing that changed to make us think he was better than what he’s shown since he came into the league was last years playoff performance. And, as good as that was, he’s still Joe Flacco. With all of that being said, this is the week! Joe is facing a ridiculously bad Minnesota Vikings secondary this week and could easily post his best game of the season. If you need to take a chance with Joe, I’m all-in.
2. RB – Willis McGahee, Cleveland Browns (ECR – 43rd): Willis posted a decent game last week against the Jaguars and gets a second easy run matchup in a row versus the New England Patriots. The Pats are brutal against the run and I’m thinking the Browns can keep it close for at least the first half. If they want any shot at slowing down Brady and New England offense, they will need to feed McGahee early and often to control the clock. (Ranking note: Since I rank the RBs for FFLockerRoom, I did rank McGahee at 25, putting my money where my mouth is!)
3. WR – Jacoby Jones, Baltimore Ravens (ECR – 45th): I was actually a little surprised by this, I thought he would have been a little lower but that shows you that there are some believers this week. Of the 100+ rankers that are accounted for on FantasyPros, two of them had Jones inside their top 30. I’m right there with ya boys. If I think Flacco is due, that means he has to chuck to someone and Jones has been seeing a decent amount of targets since coming back from injury.
4. WR – Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders (ECR – 52nd): Andre Holmes had a huge game on Thanksgiving Day with Denarius Moore out. And as of yesterday, Moore has yet to practice with that shoulder injury. If Holmes is starting once more, I like him to put up decent numbers against the Jets poor pass coverage.
5. TE – Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers (ECR – 16th): His ranking is all over the place right now. He’s ranked as high as 5th and as low as 34th currently on FantasyPros. But I liked him last week and have mentioned his name in a couple of different places over the past week. He is getting a ton of snaps and he’s put together a very nice stretch of games recently.
If you have someone you think that will be this weeks surprise player, let us know in the comments. You never know, you could help someone win their playoff game!