Week 8 DFS Blue Book: Playing the Slots
Last weekend, the DFS Blue Book crushed it again! I know of people using the Blue Book that came away up to $600, $700, and $1,300. Thanks to our friends at RotoTracker.com, I could see that my ROI for the week was 742.16%! Visit RotoTracker.com/fantasyhotread to track your ROI.
On to Week 8, though. This week there is very little initial value at RB. That value may open as the week rolls on but as of now, the lack of RB value will affect our roster building. The Packers VS. Falcons and Raiders VS. Bucs games dominate the Week 8 Blue Book. Some of my favorite plays this week are slot receivers that are moderately priced. Hope you enjoy reading this week and good luck with your lineups (as long as they aren’t against me).
Aaron Rodgers | QB | Cash
All it took for Aaron Rodgers to snap out of his slump was a roster completely devoid of RB talent. In Week 7, Rodgers led the NFL in dropbacks (59) and attempts (56) but had an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 6.4 yards. This shows how the Packers were able to use the short passing game to supplement the run, similar to Matthew Stafford during the Lions great stretch in 2015. But what was most impressive was Rodgers completion percentage (C%) and his adjusted completion percentage (aC%) were both 81.3 percent. The Packers WR crew, specifically Davante Adams has always had a stigma for drops but they made it through 56 passes without dropping one. I think Rodgers is the no. 1 QB this week and the volume of attempts he will accrue make him an ideal cash game play.
Matt Ryan | QB | GPP
Matt Ryan is still the QB1 but in the past three weeks, he has only been the QB11. This might, coupled with other enticing matchups, might lead some owners to fade Ryan this week. I think that is a mistake. He’s still throwing downfield and his no.1 threat Julio Jones will have a field day with the Packers beat up secondary. This week, I recommend stacking Julio and Matt Ryan in GPPs.
Drew Brees | QB | GPP
Drew Brees against the Seattle Seahawks in New Orleans is a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Brees, and his famously great home splits are set to take one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Brees is leading the NFL in TD passes (17) but Seattle has only given up 84 points on the whole season. One of the most interesting matchups this week will be Coby Fleener and Willie Snead against the middle of the Seahawks defense. Traditionally, this is how teams have been able to hurt the Seahawks. Another area Brees will look to exploit is Brandin Cooks against Deshawn Shead. Shead is a good player but Cooks traditionally dominates two things: when he is at home and when he plays against slower corners. Shead ran a 4.53 40-yard dash and Brees will be looking to hit Cooks deep. Brees is a contrarian GPP play that the Week 8 DFS Blue Book recommends.
Derek Carr | QB | Cash
Derek Carr is another QB that has cooled down as of late. This is only because there has been a severe regression in the TD category. In the past two weeks, Carr has averaged 1 TD per game in comparison to his 2 TD/game pace from the first 5 weeks. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout and I think that 300 yards and 3 TDs are a real possibility for Carr. Using Carr is also a nice way to get exposure to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree if you are having trouble deciding between the two stud WRs.
Jameis Winston | QB | Cash
Jameis Winston is the Week 8 DFS Blue Book cash game QB of the week. Dating back to last year, Winston has been remarkably consistent in putting up double-digit fantasy points. It’s counterintuitive to think that a QB that struggles with consistency can put up consistent numbers but Winston has done it for one and a half seasons now. Dating back to his rookie season, Winston has played in 24 games. In those 24 games, Winston has reached double-digit fantasy points 23 times. This is more than any other QB during the same time period. I think that it is time to load Jaboo into your cash roster and go from there.
Christine Michael | RB | GPP
Christine Michael draws a nice matchup against the New Orleans Saints this weekend. The Saints defense is allowing the most points per game to opposition backfields this season. This bodes well for a player that has faced several tough defenses in a row. The only thing keeping Michael as a GPP play for me is the poor offensive line play. Even though he draws a nice matchup, it is conceivable that their offensive line continues to hurt his production. He’s still forcing missed tackles and catching the ball so his upside is still there, however, so load him into a few GPPs.
Ezekiel Elliott | RB | GPP
I think you can pencil Ezekiel Elliot in for the rushing title. That isn’t even liberal usage of hyperbole. Zeke and that offensive line are just that good. This week, the Cowboys run into a tough defense in the Philadelphia Eagles. But the Wide-9 has always had some weakness against the run and I expect the Cowboys line to pave the way for Zeke to hit 125 yards yet again. At his price point and his lack of involvement in the passing game, he’s going to need a touchdown to hit value. Fire him up in some GPPs this weekend and go win yourself some money.
Spencer Ware | RB | Cash
It just feels like Spencer Ware has had dream matchup after dream matchup this season but none more fruitful than a trip to Indianapolis. The Chiefs are road favorites with an implied total of 26.5 points. The Colts have been gashed on the ground this season, giving up 5 or more yards on 42.1 percent of opposing RB carries. This bodes well for an RB averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 3.1 yards after contact. Ware has also been huge in the passing game, averaging 3.5 targets per game. All of this efficiency has led Ware to be 4th in the NFL in Points Per Opportunity (PPO). I think this is another great spot for Ware and he is one of my Week 8 DFS Blue Book Plays of the Week.
Matt Forte | RB | Cash
If it looks like Bilal Powell will be limited then Matt Forte becomes a great play. But the snap counts have been all over the place this season and I need to see some clarity before I am willing to use either one.
Devonta Freeman | RB | GPP
If Devonta Freeman’s health checks out, he could be in line for a huge usage bump. It was about a year ago that Freeman was amid a fantasy run like no other but as he faded so did the Falcons. This year, the Falcons have rotated RBs and kept both players fresh. But this week, Tevin Coleman is out which means Freeman could see the 20+ touches he was receiving last season. I think Freeman has as high an upside as any RB this week if he’s fully healthy. Keep an eye on the practice reports and hit up @z_dahdul on Twitter for all your injury questions.
Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | Cash
This man, Jacquizz Rodgers is running hard! It’s as if he knows this is his last shot to impress and he’s hitting holes like his hair is on fire. This week, Rodgers gets a bad defense that is allowing 155.6 yards per game to opposing backfields. Over the past 2 games, Quizz has 62 touches and it seems like they are going to continue to feed him. Last week, there was a dip in targets but I think that changes this week against those aggressive Oakland LBs. Quizz makes for a great cash game play this weekend and is highly recommended by the Week 8 DFS Blue Book.
LeGarrette Blount | RB | GPP
Last week, Jay Ajayi exposed some lackluster Bills tackling. This week, the Bills get another battering ram in LeGarrette Blount. Blount leads the NFL in 4th Quarter rushing attempts and the game script should favor him again. The Bills are currently a 6-point underdog and if history tells us anything, it’s that the Patriots will look to avenge their previous loss with the fury of a scorned lady. I’m never down to use Patriots players in cash games due to the unpredictability of their usage but Blount has all the makings of a GPP winner this week.
Matt Asiata | RB | Cash
If Jerick McKinnon sits or is limited by his injury then Matt Asiata is a great cash game option. If McKinnon plays, I still like Asiata but more as a GPP pivot. Both RBs have been bad in the yards per carry category but Asiata has proven to be the most adept pass-catcher with a nice catch rate of 87 percent. Asiata also more touchdown upside. This week, Asiata gets a Bears defense that has been bad against RBs. I wouldn’t mind firing up some cash games on the Sun-Mon slate to use Asiata
Devonte Booker | RB | Cash
Once again, an injury has opened up some amazing value for us. Booker becomes a must use Week 8 DFS Blue Book cash game player. Denver is a home favorite which should push the game script towards success for Booker. However, if the game script changes, Booker can catch the ball out of the backfield. It is a small sample size, but Booker has caught 9 out 10 targets this year. I think that Booker is the RB you must use this week to gain some salary relief, fire him up in all your cash games and build from there.
Julio Jones | WR | GPP
Julio Jones is the WR1 this week. The Falcons have an implied total of 27.8 and the Packers have a beat up secondary. On some sites, Draftkings specifically, it would be hard for Jones to reach 3x value without a TD. I don’t want to be TD dependent in a cash game so that is why Jones is a GPP-only, despite having a great matchup.
Mike Evans | WR | Cash
Mike Evans continues to be force fed the ball and consequently he will continue to be forced into my lineups. This week, he gets a secondary that has struggled to defend the pass, giving up 12.7 yards per completion. Evans leads the NFL in targets per game with 12! Evans also has an aDOT of 17.0 yards which means Evans is seeing 204 air yards per game! He is criminally underpriced yet again and as much as I don’t like to stack in cash games it will be tough for me to avoid the Jameis-Evans stack just about everywhere.
Amari Cooper | WR | GPP
I think that Amari Cooper will be the Raider WR to own this weekend. Cooper has continually struggled to find the end zone in his career but it is somewhat misleading. I have witnessed no less than 3 occasions this season where Cooper has had TDs called back due to him being out of bounds. I realize that is on Cooper but he still has more upside than people give him credit for. So, in this potential shootout, give me the guy with the higher target share, Amari Cooper.
Randall Cobb | WR | Cash
Randall Cobb is a great cash game play this weekend and I prefer him to any other Packers WR. Over the past 3 games, Randall Cobb leads the NFL in targets with 36, he is also 1st in the NFL in receptions during that time, as well as, top-10 in PPO. This week, he will once again lead the Packers in targets as Jordy Nelson will draw Desmond Trufant and Davante Adams only has one soul to sell to Satan. I feel like Cobb-Baldwin-Evans is a nice trio to start your cash games with.
Doug Baldwin | WR | Cash
Doug Baldwin has a great Week 8 matchup against the New Orleans Saints slot guys. So far this season, they have been burned by the likes of Sterling Shepard and Dontrelle Inman. This week, they get, what I would consider, a top-5 slot WR in the NFL. So far this season, Baldwin has a solid 7.5 targets/game and a catch rate of 83-percent. With an implied total of 25.5 points, I think Baldwin sees double-digit targets and scores a touchdown. At his price point, Doug Baldwin has the floor to be a cash game staple but also the upside to take down a tournament. I’m going to be liberal with my Baldwin use and sprinkle him in most my lineups this week.
Demaryius Thomas | WR | GPP
People have become fixated on Emmanuel Sanders receiving the high target share this season but with each week, Thomas is narrowing the gap. He has more touchdowns, a higher catch rate, and more yards per target than Sanders. I like Thomas this week to once again find the end zone this week.
Ty Montgomery | WR | Cash
Over the past two weeks, Ty Montgomery leads all WRs in touches with 16 per game. I feel like as Knile Davis gets up to speed on the playbook (he’s trash) and Don Jackson gets his hand healthy (I’m a little intrigued still), Montgomery will lose some of his value. But this isn’t the week that is going to happen! On sites that Montgomery is still a WR, I think that he’s a great play.
Golden Tate | WR | Cash
Golden Tate has become a fantasy phoenix over the past two weeks. After completely busting to start the season, Tate has had his fantasy value buoyed by the absence of Theo Riddick. Over the past two weeks, Tate has had an unbelievable target share of 36.7 percent and is set to take on a banged-up Texans secondary. With an implied total of 21 points and Riddick still out, it is feasible to think that Tate will once again garner double-digit targets and 100 yards.
Tyler Lockett | WR | GPP
Tyler Lockett was amazing last year. Whether it be long passes or punt returns, Lockett was a factor in many of the Seahawks wins. 2016 hasn’t been kind to Lockett but things are beginning to look up. Just last week, Lockett was in for 78 percent of the snaps last week. Now he gets the always suspect Saints defense. Lockett is interesting to me in a stack with Russell Wilson, or even better, in a stack with multiple Saints players.
Robby Anderson | WR | GPP
Robby Anderson is quickly becoming the deep threat for the New York Jets. At the minimum price, playing the Browns, Anderson has a decent chance of hitting value with one long play. The only thing keeping Anderson out of my lineups is noodle-arm Ryan Pick6patrick. If you’re willing to be risky, Anderson has tremendous upside this week.
Jimmy Graham | TE | GPP
Jimmy Graham is another player with a mint matchup but a price point that makes him GPP only for me. This has a nice little revenge narrative to it, though. In the last 3 games, Graham leads the Seahawks in targets by a substantial margin. He returns to New Orleans with a coach that might opt to feed him some RZ targets against his old team. I think that if you can fit him in your GPP lineup Graham is the TE1 this week.
Coby Fleener | TE | GPP
Coby Fleener has been the TE2 that last two times the Saints have had a home game. As I stated earlier with Drew Brees, I am most interested in slot receivers and TEs against the Seahawks because they are more vulnerable in this middle. Fleener is pretty much a stack with Brees or complete fade this week but I do think he’s got some GPP upside.
C.J. Fiedorowicz | TE | Cash
^That is a tough name to spell but with a top-12 score in 3 of the last 4 weeks, I may have to get used to it. C.J. Fiedorowicz has come on as Brock Osweiler has struggled. Fiedorowicz has a catch rate of 75-percent and he’s quickly become the shell-shocked QB’s security blanket. This week, Brock will wrap himself in the warmth that is the Fiedoroblankie against the Detroit Lions; a team that has struggled to defend the TE all year. This makes C.J. my Week 8 Blue Book Cash Game Value TE.
Vikings | DST | Cash
The Vikings are traveling to Chicago to take on Jay Cutler in his return to the starting lineup. I believe that all the clamoring for Brian Hoyer to start will only increase the level of DGAF that Cutler will exhibit on the field. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cutler throw 4 TDs, 2 to each team, as he slings the rock wherever he damn well pleases on MNF.
Jets | DST | Cash
This will revolve around the Browns starter at QB. If the Browns are forced to go with Kevin Hogan, and his Tim Tebow-esque release, the Jets are a must-play. If Josh McCown can make it back, I may pivot to a lower priced, home favorite.
Browns | DST | GPP
I would be remised if I didn’t include the defense playing Ryan Fitzpatrick. There is always a chance for a pick 6 when you are playing Fitz.
Falcons | DST | GPP
The Falcons are an improving defense against a Packers team that has been inconsistent-at-best this season. Don’t forget that the first half of that Packers game last week was an absolute abortion. There is a good chance that if the Packers are forced to be one-dimensional again, the Falcons will be able to make them pay.