Week 11 DFS Blue Book
Last week I was reeling from political season, just burnt out from a battle that I had been fighting for about 18 months that culminated in a loss. I also got a cold from my kids and it all added up to a terrible weekend DFS wise. This is where a lesson can be learned. Life is about compartmentalization. When one aspect of your life is spiraling out of control, you need to be able to compartmentalize that so that it doesn’t affect other aspects of your life.
I failed at this last week. I forgot that this is fantasy football. The operative word is fantasy. That means it is supposed to be fun. This is meant to be an escape, where men and women can have their competitive juices flowing and where we can come together as a group to root for football players. Or even come together as a group and hope for the failure of DFS players that use mass entries and algorithms.
With a fresh mind and a rejuvenated outlook, let’s get into the Week 11 DFS Blue Book.
Andrew Luck | QB | GPP
The last time Andrew Luck played the Titans he ended up the QB1 that week. The Titans have an improved team overall but they are still very susceptible to the passing game. I love Luck this week and think that he’s got a very real chance at 300 yards plus 4 TDs.
Kirk Cousins | QB | Cash
Kirk Cousins has an unfortunate stigma of being a mediocre QB. In the last 4 games, he’s thrown for either 300 yards or 2 TDs in every game. At his price point, that kind of stat line is all he needs to hit value. This week, he gets a struggling Packers defense and I love him in cash games where you are looking to save money at the QB spot.
Blake Bortles | QB | GPP
Blake Bortles is a bad quarterback. His accuracy is terrible, stemming from an amazingly bad throwing motion that looks as though he’s never been taught the position. That said, he is playing a bad defense in an away game which they are 6.5-point underdogs. This is a recipe for fantasy success as Blake “The Garbage Time King” Bortles will thrive in the fourth quarter while his team is down by 21-points.
DeMarco Murray | RB | GPP
DeMarco Murray gave some owners a scare with his sore toe then promptly broke off a 75-yard TD run. He has been a great option this season because of his involvement in the running game, as well as, the passing game. This week, the flaming-hot Titans offense takes on a Colts defense that gives up a score on nearly 50 percent of possessions. There is going to be more people on Mariota and the passing game but I love Murray in this spot.
Le’Veon Bell | RB | Cash
The great thing about Le’Veon Bell is that he has an incredibly high floor due to his involvement in the passing game. At over 9 targets per game, Lev Bell would be in the Top-15 of all WRs in targets per game. He also has a tremendous upside on the ground. Two weeks ago, everyone was falling all over themselves to roster Zeke against this same defense and Bell has an equal opportunity to smash the Browns. I expect Bell to be the no.1 RB this week, so load him into your lineups with confidence.
Spencer Ware | RB | GPP
Spencer Ware is going to be under-owned this week. That’s a mistake. He still has a large share in this offense and he is going to be highly used this weekend. With many people spending on the tier of RBs slightly above Ware, I think you can expect to see low-end RB1 numbers out of him this week. Ware is definitely a favorite GPP play for the Week 11 DFS Blue Book.
Theo Riddick | RB | Cash
Theo Riddick is a great cash game option this week. The Jags have struggled to cover pass-catching RBs this year which will favor the Lions overall game plan. I love playing RBs who are home favorites and pass-catching RBs against teams that struggle against that kind of attack. Riddick fits both bills.
Todd Gurley | RB | GPP
Todd Gurley’s price has officially dipped down to where he can hit value on volume alone. This week is a total unknown with a rookie QB starting but it would make sense to try and get Gurley into space to ease Jared Goff in. Knowing the Jeff Fisher is the definition of mediocrity; his game plan will always be unpredictable. But it’s unpredictable in a bad way, not a Bill Belichick way. It’s like he throws at a playbook…while blindfolded…That said, I still like Gurley’s ability to eventually shine through the ineptitude.
Rob Kelley | RB | Cash
Green Bay still has an aura about their rushing D that just isn’t there anymore. They built a reputation early in the season by stopping lackluster run games. In reality, they were beneficiaries of teams shitting all over themselves. This week, Rob “I’m Gonna Piss on Youuuu” Kelley is going to get a full workload against a Packers defense that has been a train wreck. The Pack is averaging giving up more than 5 TDs a game when Clay Matthews doesn’t play and with Washington being home favorites… MY MIND’S TELLING ME NOOOOOO, BUT MY BODYYYY, MY BODYYYY, IS TELLING ME YEAHHHH, playyyyy R. Kelley.
C.J. Prosise | RB | Cash
The prices for this week’s slate came out while C.J. Prosise was slaughtering the Patriots defense. He’s extremely underpriced and I think that he will be highly-owned. His involvement in the passing game means his floor is essentially his value threshold. Prosise is precisely what we are looking for in a cash game. Load him up, he’s the DFS Blue Book Week 11 Cash Value.
James Starks | RB | GPP
Who would have ever though that have absolutely no threat of a real running attack would eventually hurt that efficiency of their passing game? Everyone you say? Not Mike McCarthy. I think last week may have been a wake-up call for the Pack, who will look to exploit the Washington football team on the ground. It’s going to fall on WNY native James Starks to do so and I like him a lot this week.
Odell Beckham | WR | Cash
I’m old enough to remember when owners were worried about Odell Beckham. He has certainly assuaged those worries by scoring 6 TDs over the last 5 games. The Giants have an implied total of 26+ points and you must think that if the Giants are going to score 3 TDs, OBJ will be a factor in at least one of them. OBJ is the Week 11 DFS Blue Book Must-Play WR.
Mike Evans | WR | GPP
Last week, I went with Mike Evan over Antonio Brown and it cost me. Brown, with the help of a late fake-spike TD, crushed it. Evans was a victim of game flow. I think this week the Bucs are going to face a different kind of ballgame in Kansas City. There is a real chance that the Bucs get blown out which would only help Evans targets and production. Always remember that Marcus Peters isn’t a CB to fear (unless you’re Jameis) because he doesn’t shadow and he gives up big plays.
T.Y. Hilton | WR | GPP
I’ve seen some Donte Moncrief love this week but for me, the guy is T.Y. Hilton. He gets a dream matchup against Brice McCain and will also see time across from Perrish Cox. The Titans defense is terrible against the pass and has essentially been what the Raiders were early in the season. Keep up with the trends and make some money by targeting the Titans pass D with the Colts best offensive weapon.
Allen Robinson | WR | Cash
Allen Robinson has come on strong since Nate Hackett has taken over as OC. This week he should see a game script right up Bortles and his alley, as I expect the Lions to thrash the Jags. I think that Robinson is emerging from his season-long spot as a GPP only candidate to be a legit cash game option this week.
Randall Cobb | WR | GPP
Between the three main Green Bay WRs, Cobb will be the least owned but he has the best matchup. Kendall Fuller has been bad against slot WRs this season. I think Cobb has high-upside this week and makes for a great GPP play.
Doug Baldwin | WR | Cash
“Overall Really Weird Fucking Guy” Russell Wilson is getting healthy at a great time for the Seahawks offense. No one is benefitting more than Doug Baldwin. Baldwin, known for being ultra-efficient is seeing roughly 7 targets a game this season. That is more than enough for Doug to crush his value threshold this week.
Golden Tate | WR | Cash
Golden Tate has regained the WR1 job in Detroit and with it a sizable target share. Over the last 4 games, Tate has averaged over 10 targets per game. The Jags have struggled against the quick passing game this year, making the Lions the worst possible opponent to face. I could see Tate with a huge range of outcomes this week, but they all involve a ton of catches. Load him up into your cash game lineups for a ton of safety with a decent amount of upside.
Eddie Royal | WR | GPP
I think that Eddie Royal is likely going to be the Bears WR to own the rest of the year. Smokin’ Jay has shown a propensity to throw to WRs he is comfortable with. Royal doesn’t fit the prototypical Cutler man-crush but he is the longest tenured Bears WR with any health or eligibility.
Delanie Walker | TE | Cash
Delanie Walker continues to be too cheap for his involvement in the offense. He leads the Titans in targets per game with 6.9. Nice! This game is projected to be a shootout and with Marcus Mariota as hot as he has been it makes sense to use his no. 1 target.
Tyler Eifert | TE | GPP
The Bengals passing attack has quickly incorporated Tyler Eifert back into the plans after his ankle injury. Over the last two games, Eifert has 8.5 targets per game. That ranks 3rd in the NFL over that period. This week Eifert gets a Bills team that is allowing 10.4 yards per target to TEs.
Julius Thomas | TE | GPP
TE against the Lions. Next.
Zach Miller | TE | Cash
Zach Miller currently has accrued 19.2 percent of the Chicago Bears target shares. This will only increase with Alshon Jeffrey’s suspension. We all know that Smokin’ Jay has a tendency to pick a favorite target to lock on to and I believe that Miller will be his first choice to become the apple of his eye.
Martellus Bennett | TE | Cash (if Gronk out)
Marty Bennett is going to be highly-owned this week. The only question is whether or not Bill Belichick uses the Black Unicorn. We have seen instances in the past where a player on the Patriots is in an amazing spot and Bill Belichick goes out of his way to fuck intelligent fantasy owners. I’d expect nothing less from a man who open-mouth kisses his daughter.
I do think the spot is too good to pass up, however. Throw him in your cash lineups and expect a big game, if he doesn’t have one, blame Belicheck.
Chiefs | DST | Cash
Chiefs are home favorites. They live off of turnovers and play against a QB who has turned the ball over on occasion throughout his career.
New York Football Giants | DST | GPP
There is at least an even money chance that Jay Cutler continues to implode from the force of his internal hatred for John Fox. If that is an actual thing, my implosion will begin in T-Minus 10 seconds because I hate that fucker so…