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Week 7 DFS Blue Book: Some Bad Hombres at WR


Week 7 DFS Blue Book

The Week 7 DFS Blue Book is coming strong once again! This week there appear to be very solid plays at all three salary levels. My favorite plays this week are the high-priced WRs and some value TEs. This will give you an abundance of options when roster building. Stars and Scrubs? Balanced? Read what I have to say about these players and get creative this week!

Matt Ryan | QB | GPP

This Atlanta Falcons offense is a lot of fun to watch. It all starts with Matt Ryan who is currently the QB1 by 18 Fantasy Points (FPs). The past two weeks, Ryan has faced the Broncos and the Seahawks on the road but he finally gets a break with a home game against the Chargers. The Falcons have an implied total of 29.8 points and are a 6.5-point favorite. This game could turn into a shootout which would really help Ryan’s totals. I really like Matt Ryan stacked with Julio Jones this week in GPPs but Ryan also has a nice floor that makes him a cash game consideration.

Philip Rivers | QB | Cash

Philip Rivers is the other QB in the Falcons/Chargers game and I like him just as much. Rivers is currently 8th in the NFL in Points Per Dropback (PPD) and he could very well throw 45 times this game. Rivers is averaging over 18 FPs per game and on a site like DraftKings he is averaging 20.0 Draftkings Points (DKPs). At his current price point, Rivers would need 19.5 DKPs to hit cash value. In a plus matchup (Atlanta is 4th worst in points per game surrendered to QBs), I think 20 FPs is Rivers’ floor, making him a great cash game option.

Andy Dalton | QB | Cash

Andy Dalton currently ranks 10th in fantasy scoring at the QB position. That’s really incredible considering he is 22nd in touchdowns and he isn’t a running QB. This tells me that Dalton is due for some positive regression in the TD area. Not to mention Cleveland has been a haven for fantasy QBs, allowing multiple touchdowns passes in every game this season. Dalton has had double-digit FPs in every game this season and I don’t think that will change this week. Lock Dalton into your cash lineups this week! The Red Rifle is the Week 7 DFS Blue Book QB of the Week.

Marcus Mariota | QB | GPP

Weeks 5 and 6 were supposed to be the return of Tom Brady to his spot atop fantasy QBs but instead those weeks bore witness to the ascension of Marcus Mariota. The past two weeks have been some of the best games in Mariota’s career as he posted back-to-back 3 touchdown games. More importantly, he was able to get his feet involved. I am still apprehensive to use him in cash games, but Mariota has tremendous upside this week against the Colts.

Kirk Cousins | QB | Cash

Kirk Cousins is a play that I really like for cash games this weekend. You know that his volume will be there, he’s playing a bad defense, and you can play him naked because of the variance in who he throws to. He’s a great value across the industry and should be considered for your cash games.

Sam Bradford | QB | Cash

Sam Bradford is as close to minimum priced as you’re going to get out of a starting QB. The Vikings have an implied total of 21.8 points and Bradford has scored 15 or more points in 3 out of 4 starts. One would assume that coming out of the bye week, Bradford will be relied upon a little more. At .47 PPD, he is ahead of QBs like Derek Carr and Andrew Luck so even if the Vikings throw 5 more times, it would significantly bump Bradford’s value. I think using Bradford as a low priced QB punt is a viable cash game option.

DeMarco Murray | RB | Cash

Murray was pedestrian last week but that shouldn’t affect your decision making for Week 7. This week, Murray has a dream matchup against the Colts. The Titans have an implied total of 25.5 points and are playing a team that has given up an average of 422.3 yards the last three weeks. The Colts have allowed seven top-20 RBs this year and Murray is currently the RB3 in PPR scoring. I think that Murray has a huge day against the suspect Colts defense and recommend him for all your cash games.

Devonta Freeman | RB | GPP

Devonta Freeman has a nice matchup against the Chargers this week. The split between Freeman and Tevin Coleman is still relatively close but Freeman is out-touching Coleman 17.8 to 11.5. I like Freeman to have a big week all-around in Week 7.

James White | RB | Cash

The Tom Brady return has meant a ton to the New England offense, fantasy owners, and mostly James White. The shift to a pass-heavy offense has really crushed LeGarrette Blount’s value and shifted it to White. In Week 5 and Week 6, White has out-snapped Blount 53 percent to 39 percent. White also is second on the team in touches during that same period and third in targets. This week, White will be lining up against the Steelers who have allowed the third-most receptions per game. The Steelers bend-but-don’t-break defense is very conducive to RB receptions. This makes White the Week 7 Blue Book cash game value of the week.

Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | Cash

If Doug Martin is out, load up Quiz Rodgers into your cash games. The 49ers are last in the NFL in defending the run and have been shredded by opposing backfields. Last week, Rodgers surprised everyone with a 30 carry game. If Doug Martin plays, I think I will steer clear of the Tampa Bay backfield. Quizz is the Week 7 DFS Blue Book must-play at RB.

Duke Johnson | RB | Cash

Another RB who excels through the air is Cleveland’s Duke Johnson. Johnson will be playing against the same Bengals team that struggled with James White last week and will present similar problems to the defense. Johnson is currently 3rd on the Browns in targets at 31. His 31 targets are also good for 2nd in the NFL among RBs. This week he could see an increase in usage through the air if Terrelle Pryor is hobbled by his injury and the game flow should favor Johnson as the Browns are 9.5-point underdogs.

Chris Ivory | RB | GPP

This is a complete flier because the RB usage in Jacksonville is all over the place. But it seems that when Chris Ivory has been healthy, he has out-touched T.J. Yeldon. Last week, Ivory out-touched Yeldon 13-7. Should this trend continue Ivory would be the RB that gets the honor of shredding the Raiders defense. In fact, the Raiders defense has surrendered a top-20 RB performance every week since Week 1. At his meager price point across the industry, I think Chris Ivory might be a very interesting GPP play.

Chris Thompson | RB | Cash

Chris Thompson is one of the least flashy options on every slate which keeps his price down. But at his minimum price this week, he has a very good chance to hit cash game value. Aside from Week 3, Thompson has scored 11.9, 8.8, 12.0, 8.5, and 9.6 DKPs. All of these scores would be completely acceptable out of such a modestly priced player. I wouldn’t touch him in a GPP but Thompson is an interesting name to use in your quest to reach cash value.

Julio Jones | WR | Cash

Julio Jones is going to be locked and loaded into roughly 105 percent of my lineups this week. Things are just shaping up tremendously for him to thrive on Sunday. With an implied total of 29.8, it is hard to imagine Julio not going for 100+ yards and a score. Depending on the side he lines up from, Julio will draw Casey Hayward or “Dr. Death” Steve Williams. Both of these CBs have graded out well this season but they are both undersized for the position. Julio Jones currently has an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 15.7 yards and an amazing Yards Per Reception (YPR) of 21.2 yards. I look for this to continue this week so load him into your lineups. Julio Jones is the Week 7 DFS Blue Book must-play at WR.

A.J. Green | WR | GPP

Nobody has a softer matchup than A.J. Green this week. The Cleveland secondary has given up multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. The Browns are also allowing a TD pass every 13.3 pass attempts. On the flip side, AJG is getting 10.3 Targets Per Game for a Target Rate (TGT/Snap) of 16.8 percent. While Green has traditionally struggled with Joe Haden, I expect the confluence of factors listed above to result in a big day for Green. I’m going to try and get my AJG exposure through Andy Dalton in cash games but Dalton/AJG as a stack could be a very nice option in GPPs.

Mike Evans | WR | Cash

Mike Evans is an incredible value this week. He’s currently seeing a whopping 12 targets per game with an aDOT of 17.4 yards. That means he is seeing 208.8 air yards worth of targets per game! With the injury to Vincent Jackson, this tendency will only trend upwards. I think that Evans is a must-play in cash this week and I wouldn’t scoff at a Jameis/Quizz/Evans/ Brate stack of some form or another in a GPP.

T.Y. Hilton | WR | GPP

Here is another guy seeing amazing target volume. T.Y. Hilton is getting 10.7 targets per game with an aDOT of 12.7 yards for a grand total of 135.89 air yards per game. This is even more impressive when you consider that he runs 55 percent of his routes from the slot. This weekend, Hilton gets Brice McCain from the slot but will also be schemed to run routes against Perrish Cox, who plays LCB exclusively. PFF has Cox graded out at 42.5 which is tied with Darrelle Revis for 8th worst among starting CBs. Hilton is always an up-and-down player but I think this week he has a nice stat line.

Allen Robinson | WR | Cash

Allen Robinson might be off of some player’s radar because of a perceived slow start. That will be a mistake this week when ARob takes on the porous Raiders defense. Oakland has allowed six 100-yard receivers this season. I look for ARob to make that 7 players this weekend.

Tyrell Williams | WR | Cash

Tyrell Williams is a guy that many people are off because of Desmond Trufant’s shadow coverage. While Trufant is an elite CB, Williams is looking like the no. 1 option in the Chargers passing attack. He leads the team in RZ targets, is 7th in the NFL in Run After Catch (RAC), and is 2nd on his team in snaps. I think that the volume Williams will get, especially if Travis Benjamin is out, will be enough to get him to his value threshold.

Adam Thielen | WR | Cash if Diggs out (For Harambe)

Adam Thielen took over for Stefon Diggs in a big way against the Texans. Should Diggs sit out again, Thielen is a very good play. He’s got a nice aDOT of 13.6 yards and showed some great route running and athleticism against a good pass defense in Week 5. I also wanted to write Diggs out for Harambe. (RIP Big Guy)

Rishard Matthews | WR | GPP

I like Rishard Matthews as a leverage play against players chasing points with Kendall Wright. Last week, Wright was the most productive Titans WR but he only played 35 percent of the snaps. I think Matthews begins to separate himself from Andre Johnson and Tajae Sharpe as the clear no. 1 outside WR this week. He gets a nice matchup against Rashaan Melvin and has a nice chance to hit 4x value.

Adam Humphries | WR | Cash

Adam Humphries was very effective in the first 3 games, even garnering 12 targets in Week 3. He has since fallen off but the combination of the bye week and Vincent Jackson’s injury should bump his usage back up. It’s likely that Humphries, at minimum price, will see 8+ targets this week, which makes him a very interesting WR punt.

Travis Kelce | TE | Cash

Last week, many of us were on the Chiefs passing game which disappointed owners. I’m going to chalk that up to weather and game flow and hop right back into the fray with Travis Kelce. The Saints are still struggling with pass defense (and defense in general) and Kelce is 2nd on the team in targets. With an implied total of 28.5 points, it is perfectly reasonable to think Kelce has a touchdown up his sleeve this weekend.

Tyler Eifert | TE | GPP

I wrote about Andy Dalton’s lack of passing touchdowns this season and the likelihood of positive regression in that department earlier. That positive regression is going to be in direct correlation with the return of Tyler Eifert. Eifert returned to practice on Wednesday and if he is a full go for the weekend, he should crush the Browns terrible defense.

Cameron Brate | TE | Cash

The news about Vincent Jackson’s ACL sucked. But the classy, old vet is leaving behind 6.4 targets per game. The most obvious benefactor there is Cam Brate. He’s been good this season with 17 catches and 2 touchdowns. His aDOT is 10.3 yards which is good for 5th among all TEs. This means that if he were to get even 2 more targets per game in V-Jax’s absence, they would be valuable, downfield targets. In fact, if he were to garner 2 more targets per game, he would be 3rd in the NFL in targets per game behind Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed. Cam Brate is my favorite cash game TE and he is a Week 7 Blue Book cash game value play.

Vernon Davis | TE | Cash

This play is directly related to the health of Jordan Reed. If Reed sits, and he should, Davis becomes a very interesting play at TE. Detroit has really struggled against the TE this season and Davis would be a great punt play.

Jack Doyle | TE | Cash

Jack Doyle is a minimum priced TE with some major upside. The injury to Dwayne Allen (and previously Donte Moncrief) has thrust more responsibility onto Doyle. I expect Doyle to see nearly 100 percent of the snaps and 6-8 targets. This could lead to Doyle blowing past the cash value threshold, making him one of my favorite targets at the TE position.

Bengals | DST | Cash

The Bengals have a great matchup against the Cleveland Browns this week. The Bengals have been firmly in the center of the bell curve this year, so much so that George Costanza would be proud. This week they have the chance to go from middling architect to city-planners. The Browns have a small implied total of 18 points, have struggled to run, and will possibly feature a gimpy Terrelle Pryor as their only “proven” weapon. Load up the Bengals for safety in your Week 7 cash games.

Ravens | DST | GPP

The Jets named Geno Smith their starter today. The Jets backup is named Ryan Fitzpatrick. There is a very high incidence of interceptions between PickSixPatrick and Geno Smith. The Ravens are also top-5 in DVOA. One thing to keep an eye on is the health of Jimmy Smith. He’s been very important to the success of the Ravens.

Titans | DST | GPP

The Titans have really found their mojo rushing the passer and this week they get to attack the right side of the Colts offensive line. The Titans D is currently fifth in the NFL in sacks and that should only grow this week against the Colts. The Colts still have a potent passing game which makes this play risky but the sack/interception upside is there and the Titans are a home favorite which I love to use in GPPs.

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