Week 11 is full of hidden DFS value whether it’s at QB, RB, WR, TE, or DST. Every team seems hampered by injuries, so there are a lot of backup players with relatively low salaries for us to exploit. By using the right combination of value players and high-volume players, we can hope to assemble a roster with an extremely high, yet reachable, ceiling. There are a lot of bad matchups for the elite WRs this week. Conversely, there are a lot of positive matchups for opposing DSTs, so getting exposure to several team defenses may be vital to expanding our bankrolls.
As always, this lineup was constructed with the other Week 11 GPP lineups in mind. If you prefer a different QB/WR combination, Top-3 RB1, or team DST, so be it. Feel free to consult The DFS Blue Book for any additional players you may want to include in this week’s lineups. However, we have the utmost confidence in the players below and expect a substantial ROI across all five DFS sites. There’s not a lot of mystery left with these players, but we believe they have exploitable matchups and the capacity to perform at or above expectations. If we win $1 million this week, we hope you’ll be sharing it with us.
Here’s the Week 11 OwnThePlay DFS Lineup: $5 Blitz:
Matthew Stafford | 13% | $6,800 – Detroit has underperformed again this season, but the coaching staff has been thinned and new management is deciding who will stay and who will go. Everyone is playing for their job, including Stafford who may finally be “let loose” this week against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders defense is bottom-5 in the NFL, but have a powerful offense that forces teams into high-scoring games. The Lions have no run game, so it’ll be Stafford or bust if they hope to win this week.
Devonta Freeman | 25% | $8,200 – The Falcons have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Luck-less Indianapolis Colts who have been unable to stop the run for several years now. Freeman has been excellent at home this season and continue to post gaudy yardage numbers, regardless of matchups or game script. The Falcons should lead this game, or at least keep it close, so Freeman will get close to 20 touches and is a threat to take it to the house on any play. We suspect his 25% ownership is mostly in cash games.
Adrian Peterson | 23% | $7,600 – Over the last 8 games, Peterson has eclipsed 100 yards rushing 5 times and has averaged 116.25 yards per game over that span. He also averages 2 receptions per game, so as long as Peterson is merely average this week against the division-rival Green Bay Packers, we can pencil him in for 16 fantasy points. If Peterson can fall into the end zone, then he’ll return GPP value and be a bit of a contrarian play when teamed up with fellow high-priced RB Devonta Freeman.
Golden Tate | 4% | $4,300 – This is more of a speculative play, than one based on previous performance. Dating back to last season, Tate has been a usable WR1 when he’s part of the game plan. Whenever Calvin Johnson has missed time, Tate has been a great fill-in for DFS purposes. This season, Johnson hasn’t missed many games, so Tate has been a non-factor. The Lions need a win at home, so they may look to Tate to jumpstart the offense in lieu of Johnson’s recent struggles.
Michael Crabtree | 37% | $5,400 – The Raiders passing offense struggled last week against an underrated Vikings defense in a game that featured 25-35 mph gusts of wind. Before last week, Crabtree had 4 TDs through 3 games and was averaging 75+ yards. This week, Oakland travels to Motor City to kick the corpses of the Detroit Lions. No member of the Lions secondary is particularly talented, and the Raiders need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. We feel Crabtree could finish as a top 10 WR this week.
Garrett Celek | 0.1% | $2,500 – It may seem ludicrous to play any San Francisco 49er, but someone has to catch Blaine Gabbert’s 10-15 completions this Sunday. The 49ers travel to Seattle to play their division foes, the Seahawks in a game that should be fairly one-sided. The plus side is that Seattle’s biggest defensive weakness is guarding the TE, which means Celek has a decent matchup. San Francisco doesn’t have any top-tier skill players, so there should be plenty of targets to go around for Celek and the rest of the disheveled receiving corp. This is a 1%> play that could pay off big, especially if Celek finds the end zone.
Rob Gronkowski | 11% | $8,300 – Why order the salmon when you can have the prime rib? With so many question marks surrounding the TE position, Gronkowski is the clear No. 1. This week has a ton of value at other positions, so we felt it was worth paying up for tickets to the Gronk You Tour. In Week 2, Gronk dropped 113 yards and a TD on 7 receptions against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. Now he gets to put on a show in Foxboro on Monday Night Football—we’re expecting a few spikes in our total score.
Steven Hauschka | 5% | $4,300 – The Seattle Seahawks are favorites at home this week against the San Francisco 49ers. It’s unlikely that the 49ers will have offensive success against the Seahawks defense, so “settling for FGs” should be fine for head coach Pete Carroll. The real upside for Hauschka is his own offensive players. Neither Russell Wilson, nor Marshawn Lynch have stepped up to lead the offense, so it’s highly likely drives will stall before the end zone, leaving Hauschka with plenty of clean up duty.
Chicago Bears DST | 6% | $2,500 – The Bears have come out in the media and said they are still competing for a wild card spot, which merely tells us they are motivated to win. Their head coach, John Fox, and offensive coordinator, Adam Gase, were previously coaches for the Denver Broncos. If anyone knows how to defend and defeat Brock Osweiler, it’s this duo of coaches who happen to host the Broncos this weekend for Osweiler’s first NFL start. The Bears are cheap and hungry, which is perfect for GPPs.
Alternate plays include:
There are no alternate plays this week. Between the 10 different site lineups, The DFS Blue Book, and your own inklings, we felt it was unnecessary to list other options in Week 11. If you are curious about our input on a specific player, feel free to ask us via Twitter: @DailyStadium, or email firstname.lastname@example.org. We’re happy to discuss any GPP or cash questions you have, but please don’t send photos of lineups, or mention our full complement of players as this content is not for the public.
The above Week 11 OwnThePlay DFS Lineup is submitted as is under my personal OwnThePlay account: MySleepers.