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Week 13 OwnThePlay DFS Lineups

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Week 13 is here! Last week’s value lineups were a huge success as several of our top picks returned cash game and GPP value. With injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Chris Johnson, and several other starters, there are even more value plays for this Sunday. It’s worth noting that several of this week’s value plays could return up to 5-8x value simply because they are priced far too low. This doesn’t mean we have to pay up for every top-tier player in order to use up our salary. Instead, we can play contrarian by leaving our salary caps plenty full and instead, focusing on the matchups we are exploiting.

The Cash and GPP lineups will be posted Saturday morning by 11:00am EST. Until then, we hope you enjoy the value lineups. Make sure to look at this week’s DFS Blue Book by Jonathan Stulberg to see which players we are most likely to target for our GPPs and cash games. Jon’s been crushing it with his predictions so far this season, and there are a lot of winning combinations within the paragraphs of his weekly article. We only have 5 more weeks to turn our bankrolls into paydays, so get out there and win that money!

Below are the Week 13 DFS Value Plays for each position of a DraftKings lineup. The goal is to offer the lowest-priced players at each position so that it will be easy to construct cash and GPP lineups. These players are likely to return cash game value—which is 3x their salary divided by $1,000—so feel free to use them in your lineups this week. We’ve also provided a confidence meter of 1-5 so you’ll know who to choose if there’s only room for 1 or 2 of these players in your lineup.

Week 13 OwnThePlay DFS Lineups: Value Plays

QB | Alex Smith | $5,700 | 7% – His name may not be flashy, but Smith has been a steady QB2 all season and was dropping dimes to Jeremy Maclin last week. The Chiefs travel to Oakland to play a secondary that’s best known for making opposing QBs very productive. The Raiders will likely post their own fantasy numbers against Kansas City’s pass defense, so this game has a lot of scoring potential. Smith’s best weapon, Travis Kelce, has an ideal matchup which could lead to a pass-heavy game plan from head coach Andy Reid. We’ll let Alex Smith be the game manager for our GPP lineups this week.

RB1 | Shaun Draughn | $3,000 | 13% – Draughn played every offensive snap for the 49ers last week. That includes running plays, passing plays, short 3rd downs, long 3rd downs, you name it. No other RB has played every offensive snap for his team this season. When we look for volume and opportunity, Draughn is the poster child. His price is minimum or near minimum on every site, which means people haven’t been using him (that’s how DFS algorithms work), but we plan to. Draughn is a must for full PPR sites in cash this week, and a great pivot from other value RBs in GPPs.

RB2 | David Johnson | $3,800 | 26% – Knock, knock. Who’s there? Opportunity. It’s not much of a joke, but Johnson’s price is sure laughable this week. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out of the picture, so it’ll be up to the rookie RB to keep the Cardinals run game moving. Head coach Bruce Arians will want to find out what he has in Johnson, so we expect 15-20 touches easily in this game. Arizona has a tough matchup on paper against the Rams, but this game won’t get out of hand, so Johnson should see plenty of late touches to salt away the 4th quarter, making him a must for cash games this week.

WR1 | DeVante Parker | $3,500 | 2% – The Miami Dolphins are a mess right now. They continue their coaching carousel after firing their offensive coordinator last week, which means everyone is playing for their jobs on Sunday. Rookie WR DeVante Parker will see a huge increase in targets as he’ll be starting this week in place of Rashard Matthews (ribs) against the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary smells a lot like Swiss Cheese, which bodes will for Parker who’s already a matchup nightmare. If Ryan Tannehill throws 10+ balls at Parker, we’ll be more than happy with our ROI.

WR2 | Seth Roberts | $3,500 | 1% – Last week was not an anomaly. Roberts has flashed a few times before in the season in matchups with weakened secondaries. The Oakland Raiders play at home against the Kansas City Chiefs who appear to be playoff bound. If Alex Smith and company put points up early, Derek Carr and the Raiders will be in comeback mode, meaning Roberts will be heavily involved against the Chiefs No. 3 defensive back. One, if not more, of these Raider receivers is going to post 100+ and a TD, and Roberts comes at the biggest discount for Week 13.

TE | Zach Miller | $2,500 | 1% – The Chicago Bears have been undergoing an identity transformation this season, which includes player tryouts. Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford are deciding the future of the RB position while Zach Miller competes with Martellus Bennett for TE1 targets. In the past few weeks, Miller has a commanding lead and will look to build on his production against the San Francisco 49ers. At his price, and his projected ownership percentage, it’s awfully tempting to slot Miller into our GPP lineups across several sites. He makes for an interesting stack with Jay Cutler.

FLEX | Jacob Tamme | $3,200 | 3% – This is a risky call considering how terrible QB Matt Ryan has been playing lately, but Tamme is the No. 2 option in the Falcons passing game whenever Leonard Hankerson is out. As it stands, Hankerson is expected to miss this week’s matchup against the Buccaneers. Atlanta is reeling right now and needs to reign it in if they hope to keep their composure. Head coach Dan Quin will rely on his defense and veteran players to get the job done. If offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan plans to include Tamme, we have confidence he’ll exceed 5 for 50, with maybe a TD.

PK | Sebastian Janikowski | $3,600 | 8% – The Oakland Raiders are a mess on defense, but their a juggernaut on offense. Regardless of who makes the catches, Derek Carr continues to move the ball down field this season. The Raiders are at home against a playoff-contending Kansas City Chiefs team that can show flashes of elite defense. If the Chiefs successfully employ their bend-but-don’t-break strategy, Janikowski will be asked to kick a lot of FGs this week. It’s worth noting that he’ll be against Superstar kicker Cairo Santos, who’s also is a great play in Week 13.

DST | Chicago Bears | $2,500 | 55% – It’s quite impressive what the Bears have been able to do this season without a ton of talent on either side of the ball. Head coach John Fox has his team’s defensive unit playing tough and hungry on every snap. This week’s game is in Chicago against a 49ers team that has been bipolar in their home and away splits this season. Although Blaine Gabbert has looked serviceable, the Bears should be able to pressure the QB and force turnovers. They aren’t our favorite DST of the week, but if you need to save money, the Bears are a usable in all formats.

POS PLAYER % OWNED SALARY
QB A. Smith 7 5700
RB S. Draughn 13 3000
RB D. Johnson 26 3800
WR D. Parker 2 3500
WR S. Roberts 1 3500
TE Z. Miller 1 2500
FLEX J. Tamme 3 3200
PK S. Janikowski 8 3600
DST Chicago Bears 55 2500

 

Have any questions? Want to share your value plays for the week? Hit us up on Twitter @DailyStadium and let us know.

Week 13 OwnThePlay DFS Lineups: Cash Games

This week’s cash lineup feels too good to be true. Because of the cheap RBs on the Week 13 slate, we were able to fit in all our top volume plays for the week. Shaun Draughn and DeAngelo Williams get all their team’s touches from the backfield, and David Johnson is in line for the same situation now that Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out with injuries. It’s more about opportunity and goal line touches when it comes to RBs, so these 3 all but guarantee 55 total touches.

Volume is important for WRs as well, so we loaded up on target monsters. Odell Beckham and Julio Jones are the primary target on their respective squads and have been productive all season. Jones struggled last week, which seems to mean lower ownership. He torched the Bucs earlier in the season, so we’re at a big advantage right from the start. A lot of people will go cheap at TE, but we have money to burn, so Travis Kelce against Oakland is the matchup we chose to exploit. We’re confident Kelce finishes with as many (or more) points as Scott Chandler.

Finally, we had to identify the best QB, PK, and DST to round out our cash lineup. Since there are so many usable QBs in the NFL, we started with the DST. Washington plays on Monday night against Matt Cassel and the Cowboys. Washington’s defense has played much better at home this season, and could be the difference maker in a low-scoring game. They’re dirt cheap compared to Arizona and New England, so we had enough money left over for Derek Carr, a gunslinger who can accidentally throw for 300 yards against a weakening Kansas City secondary. Adam Vinatieri is expected to be in a shootout with the Steelers, and his 1% ownership rate should give us a big boost if he “goes off.”

POS PLAYER % OWNED SALARY
QB Derek Carr 4% $7,600
RB Shaun Draughn 8% $3,000
RB David Johnson 43% $3,800
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 13% $8,300
WR Julio Jones 12% $8,400
TE Travis Kelce 8% $5,100
FLEX DeAngelo Williams 21% $7,300
PK Adam Vinatieri 1% $3,900
DST Washington Football Team 5% $2,600

Week 13 OwnThePlay DFS Lineups: GPPs

This week’s GPP lineup may seem wacky, but it’s built on sound logic. Our goal is to zig when others zag, giving us a major boost in the rankings. The GPP lineups for the larger DFS sites include more conventional players, but we wanted to give ourselves one “out there” lineup, just in case. We know that if our game plan does come true, we won’t have many people to share the profits with.

The Browns are a losing football team, but they have had fantasy production with Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel all season. Austin Davis has experience as an NFL QB and will be playing for his future this Sunday against the Bengals. We’ve stacked Davis with his two main targets, Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge. It’s possible that this trio flops, but if they put up big numbers—cha-ching. A.J. Green is a strong correlation play and should have no problem posting 100+ and a TD or two.

With all the contrarian plays, we were able to start DeAngelo Williams, our top RB for Week 13. LeGarrette Blount should be in for a large workload against the Eagles, but he’s still under 10% owned, so he’s a leverage play for sure. T.Y. Hilton is a volume play in a game where his team could be trailing, but will need to throw regardless. The Titans play Jacksonville who are terrible in their secondary, but tough against the run. The Jaguars give up a ton of fantasy production to opposing DSTs, so we paired Ryan Succop with the Titans DST, a combo this should be extremely low owned.

POS PLAYER % OWNED SALARY
QB Austin Davis 1% $5,000
RB LeGarrette Blount 8% $6,700
RB DeAngelo Williams 21% $7,300
WR Travis Benjamin 0% $5,100
WR A.J. Green 1% $8,200
TE Gary Barnidge 0% $5,500
FLEX T.Y. Hilton 7% $6,100
PK Ryan Succop 0% $3,600
DST Tennessee Titans 6% $2,500

Have any questions? Want to discuss the strategy behind the lineups? Just want to say hello? Get in touch with us on Twitter @DailyStadium or send us an email at dailystadium@gmail.com.