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Week 1 FantasyDraft DFS Lineups

 

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Week 1 FantasyDraft DFS Lineups are here!

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Week 1 FantasyDraft DFS | Cash Lineup

The Week 1 cash lineup features a rookie QB with a minimum-priced salary who can run, throw, and improvise. If he doesn’t return 20 points, we’ll be flabbergasted. Everyone will likely have a Chiefs RB in their cash lineup, but we doubled down. For the combined total price of $15,700 we locked up all the Kansas City carries at home against a paper-mache run defense. If the Chiefs tandem can total 140 total yards, 2 TDs, and a handful of receptions, they’ll hit cash game value. Their upside is much higher than that.

Our superstars are at the WR position. This will be a common roster construction across all sites; cheap at QB and RB, pay up at WR/DST. However, we pivoted from Dak Prescott and picked our spots for WRs. Julio, OBJ, Evans, and Watkins all  have the potential to finish as WR1 this weekend. It’s unlikely any of them will end with fewer than double-digit points. We settled on Dwayne Allen after choosing the Los Angeles Rams DST. The Rams face a suspect 49ers team and Allen should eat against a Lions defense that struggles with athletic TEs.

Position Player Opponent Salary Rating
QB Carson Wentz vs. CLE Browns 10,000 5
RB Spencer Ware vs. SD Chargers 8,700 4
RB Charcandrick West vs. SD Chargers 7,000 5
WR Julio Jones vs. TB Buccaneers 17,700 5
WR Odell Beckham Jr. @ DAL Cowboys 17,700 5
TE Dwayne Allen vs. DET Lions 6,300 4
Flex Mike Evans @ ATL Falcons 14,000 5
Flex Sammy Watkins @ BAL Ravens 13,000 5
DST Los Angeles Rams @ SF 49ers 5,400 5

Carson Wentz | QB | $10,000 | 5

Carson Wentz is a very interesting play because he is a pivot off of the most popular QB, Dak Prescott. Both rookie QBs are priced at minimum salaries across the industry, but Wentz—the second overall pick—is being forgotten about. Just like Prescott, Carson Wentz is playing against a porous defense. While the Dallas Cowboys may have a stronger supporting cast around Prescott, this could also lead to Ezekiel Elliot having such an incredible game that Prescott isn’t forced to do much at all. Philadelphia opens at home and will want to showcase their franchise QB. Wentz is one of our must-plays this week.

Spencer Ware | RB| $8,700 | 4

Spencer Ware will be competing with Dak Prescott for the chalkiest play of the week. It is totally understandable, too. The recent revelation of Jamaal Charles’ slow comeback created a huge void in the Kansas City Chiefs backfield. In will step Ware, who showed he was an extremely capable backup last season. This preseason Ware has continued to show his competence; compiling 40 PPR fantasy points in 3 appearances. Last season, in the 9 games that Ware played in he scored an astonishingly high 0.70 points per opportunity (PPO). Those are elite numbers and I haven’t even mentioned how bad the San Diego Chargers defense is. San Diego will likely be a target to exploit all season and it begins in the opening week with Spencer Ware.

Charcandrick West | RB | $7,000 | 5

Charcandrick West was the least efficient of the 3 Kansas City Chiefs running backs. That hasn’t stopped Andy Reid from throwing a wrench into everyone’s plans this week by moving West ahead of Ware on the depth chart. One area where West has excelled is in the passing game. Last year he caught 26 balls for 259 yards with a run after catch (RAC) of 11.4. This shows that West, while inefficient, has the explosion to turn in big plays in the passing game. Factor in his high floor due to his involvement in the passing game; West is a solid cash play.

Julio Jones | WR | $17,700 | 5

Julio Jones is the No. 1 play this week across all formats. Last season, Jones was targeted 197 times. He was able to haul in 140 catches for 1,932 yards, but he only got into the end zone 9 times. This year Jones will see just as many targets because OC Kyle Shanahan has a proven track record of feeding his X-receiver the ball. However, Jones will likely see some progression in the touchdown column. There is no better way for a WR to get in the end zone than be a big-bodied WR lined up against Brent Grimes. In fact, all three CBs for Tampa Bay, Grimes, Alteraun Verner, and Vernon Hargreaves III are under 5’11. No matter where Jones lines up, he will be able to physically dominate his opponent in Week 1.

Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | $17,700 | 5

Odell Beckham Jr. opens with the Dallas Cowboys. During his 2 years in the league, OBJ has 23 catches against the Cowboys. Expect him to increase that number significantly in the season opener. Beckham Jr. has a significant matchup advantage over both Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. Last season, in 15 games, OBJ was targeted over 10 times per contest with an aDOT of 12.1 and ranked 5th among all WRs in PPR fantasy points. In a game that could quickly become a shootout, expect OBJ to return value on his price.

Dwayne Allen | TE | $6,300 | 4

Dwayne Allen spent much of last season injured or splitting time with the now departed (in New Orleans, not dead), Coby Fleener. Now Allen is the starting TE for a Rob Chudzinski offense which is known for featuring TEs. The Colts also play the Detroit Lions who were 28th at defending the TE last season. There is a very good chance that Allen is the No. 1 red zone target for the Colts this year, and he will show that in the opener with a touchdown.

Mike Evans | WR | $14,000 | 5

Mike Evans opens the season with the Atlanta Falcons in another likely high-scoring affair. The Falcons secondary features one of the more underrated CBs in the NFL, Desmond Trufant, but beyond him, there is a steep drop off. The Falcons also lack a pass rush; their defense was dead last in the NFL in sacks with a mere 20 last season. Expect Mike Evans and Jameis Winston to use this time in the pocket to stretch the field and take multiple deep shots. Evans is clearly under priced for the match up and will hit value this weekend.

Sammy Watkins | WR | $13,000 | 5

Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright have their hands full this weekend with Sammy Watkins. He is among the most physically gifted WRs in the NFL. What is great about Watkins in GPPs is that he is a threat for a touchdown with every touch. Last season he scored 1 touchdown for every 10 targets! He also had an incredible aDOT of 18.3 (4th in NFL) and yards per target (YPT) of 11.5 (3rd in NFL). So this week Watkins will look to establish himself as the league’s premier deep threat on the road against a weakened opponent. Cha-ching.

Los Angeles Rams | DST | $5,400 | 5

In cash and GPP lineups, people often look to stack their DST and RB. This makes a ton of sense for the Rams and 49ers game. The Rams will look to take advantage of Blaine Gabbert being inept. Most teams do not have an answer for Aaron Donald, and the 49ers are no different. He is going to be knifing into the backfield and blowing up slow developing run plays and putting the Niners consistently in 3rd and long situations. That is not the kind of game that Gabbert will thrive in and several turnovers are expected. All of this defensive success will ultimately lead to more opportunity for Gurley to feast on the Niners defense. It’s worth noting that defenses against Chip Kelly-led teams have more opportunities for turnovers against tired offensive players.

 

Week 1 FantasyDraftGPP Lineup

When it comes to GPPs on FantasyDraft, we don’t need to be crazy contrarian to see our name climb the leader board. The player pool is smaller, so our lineups can be less outrageous and more strategic. For example, Blake Bortles was under 5 percent owned in a Thursday GPP with over 400 individual lineups. Meanwhile, Dak Preschalk was in almost one-third of the GPP lineups. We’ve exploited this by creating a balanced and off-the-grid stack to carry us to the top.

Believe it or not, none of the players in this lineup were over 9 percent owned in the Thursday contests. All of these players have two-TD upside and are likely to return at least cash value if things don’t go according to plan. Until we know the lay of the land, there’s no reason to assume things have changed. Bortles and A-Rob are a solid one-two punch. DJ99 and the Cardinals correlate well (Johnson returned 2 kicks for TDs last season), so we filled in the cracks with superstars and contrarian upside plays. We feel good about this week’s lineup, but feel free to dabble with The DFS Blue Book for additional players.

Position Player Opponent Salary Rating
QB Blake Bortles vs. GB Packers 13600 4
RB Frank Gore vs. DET Lions 10400 3
RB David Johnson vs. NE Patriots 14100 4
WR Allen Robinson vs. GB Packers 15700 5
WR Mike Evans @ ATL Falcons 14000 5
TE Julius Thomas vs. GB Packers 7400 3
Flex Coby Fleener vs. OAK Raiders 9300 5
Flex Will Fuller vs. CHI Bears 7400 2
DST Arizona Cardinals vs. NE Patriots 7000 5

Blake Bortles | QB | $13,600 | 4

Last season, Blake Bortles came out of nowhere to produce 343 fantasy points. There has been talking this off season about his coming regression. There have been great stats about how so many of his fantasy points came in garbage time minutes. That type of negative stigma is on everyone’s minds but it is hiding that the very formula for his fantasy success in 2015 is likely to occur in the opening week of 2016. They are a 5.5-point underdog at home to the Green Bay Packers. Grabbing Bortles in this kind of game is the kind of tournament winning strategy you need in GPPs.

Frank Gore | RB | $10,400 | 3

Frank Gore is going to have an unbelievably low ownership. No, Frank Gore isn’t a sexy name. In fact, it seems like you’d be more likely to play him in cribbage DFS because it seems like he has played since the days of Otto Graham. But last season, Gore quietly put up steady numbers as a Top-10 RB in most scoring formats even though he had a hand injury that caused him to lose three fumbles near the goal line. All of this while playing with Matt Hasselbeck and Josh Freeman. Gore has no competition for RB touches in Indianapolis and the Colts are playing in a high over/under game at home against Detroit in which they are favored by 4 points. This is a recipe for RB involvement, making Gore a great mid-priced GPP play.

David Johnson | RB | $14,100 | 4

As I mentioned in the Freeman description, there is going to be a significant ownership (even in GPPs) on Ware, Michael, and Prescott that will push ownership on the high priced WRs. So why not roster the most dynamic RB in the NFL at a low ownership? Just as Freeman was the darling of the first half, David Johnson was a league winner once he took over as the lead back for the Cardinals. Expect DJ99 to get upwards of 20 touches this game which at .56 points per opportunity (PPO) could be a GPP winner for you.

Allen Robinson | WR | $15,700 | 5

Allen Robinson is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Sunday he will do battle with Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall in what should be an offensive display. He will be able to routinely beat either defender because, at 6’3 215 lbs, Robinson is a physical mismatch for the 5’11 CBs. Much of the aforementioned criticism about Bortles has been applied to Robinson this off season, so Robinson has a good chance at going under-owned this weekend. He also has a good chance of catching multiple touchdowns.

Mike Evans | WR | $14,000 | 5

Mike Evans opens the season with the Atlanta Falcons in another likely high-scoring affair. The Falcons secondary features one of the more underrated CBs in the NFL, Desmond Trufant, but beyond him, there is a steep drop off. The Falcons also lack a pass rush; their defense was dead last in the NFL in sacks with a mere 20 last season. Expect Mike Evans and Jameis Winston to use this time in the pocket to stretch the field and take multiple deep shots. Evans is clearly under priced for the match up and will hit value this weekend.

Julius Thomas | TE | $7,400 | 3

Julius Thomas is the other player in our Jaguars double stack, and, unlike Bortles and Robinson, there is no talk of a touchdown regression. The opposite is actually true because Thomas will likely increase his touchdown totals from a year ago. In 2015, Thomas played in 12 games and caught 6 touchdown passes which are a far cry from his 12 touchdown receptions in 2013 and 2014. Last season the Packers were in the bottom half of the league in defending the TE which is significant when you take into account that they play Kyle Rudolph twice a year. There is no doubt that Thomas will eat into some of that Jaguar touchdown share and hopefully he does it this weekend against the Packers.

Coby Fleener | TE | $9,300 | 4

Coby Fleener is lining up for the first time in a Saints uniform against the Oakland Raiders. This is a great match up for Fleener because the Raiders were 30th against the TE last season. While things like defending the TE may change from year to year, one factor is constant: Drew Brees targets his TE. Last season, Ben Watson was targeted 101 times. In 2014, Brees targeted Jimmy Graham 121 times. In the previous 2 seasons, the Saints TE as a position group caught 28 touchdown passes. That averages out to be a TD in 87.5% of the Saints games in the past 2 seasons. So, at a position that is notoriously TD dependent, why not invest in the Saints TE? At his moderate price point, a touchdown would all but guarantee Fleener being a great cash game value.

Will Fuller | FLEX | $7,400 | 2

The Chicago Bears have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and this week they will be playing short-handed. Will Fuller spent the entire preseason proving doubters (and Draft Twitter) wrong. His preseason stats consist of 8 catches for 144 yards with an aDOT of 17.4 and .62 PPO. Not too bad! This week he will look to keep that kind of downfield attack going against a Bears defense that is a shell of what John Fox wanted it to be.

Arizona Cardinals | DST| $7,000 | 5

It will be fascinating to see what the ownership will be like on the Cardinals DST. It is a rarity that playing a DST against the Patriots is a sound plan but week 1 is a special occasion. With Tom Brady sitting out the first 4 games of the season, the most talented defense in football gets the Brady-less Pats offense. Jimmy Garappolo was good in the preseason, but his Alex Smithian aDOT of 7.0 would’ve ranked him in the bottom 3 at the QB position last season. Jimmy Checkdown won’t find the Cardinals DST to be as accommodating with the underneath routes. A defensive or special team’s touchdown for the Cards is well within the range of outcomes.

Be sure to follow @dailystadium on Twitter for last-minute player swaps and weekly updates. Good luck in your Week 1 FantasyDraft DFS Lineups!